UK heat pump installs fell 22% this year — but it's not a simple decline
GOV.UK's June 2026 deployment stats show a drop on 2025. Forum reactions point to funding, cost and a possible shift to air-to-air systems the figures don't count.
What the source says
The short-term number
Installs from January to June 2026 (20,895) are down 22% on the same period in 2025 (26,768).
The longer-term trend
2025 was still up 9% on 2024, and 4.5x higher than 2020. This year’s first half is nearly double the same period in 2021.
What these figures leave out
The stats only count air-to-water and ground-source heat pumps installed as retrofits. Air-to-air systems, which are cheaper and increasingly popular, aren’t counted at all.
What people are saying
These are our paraphrased summaries of views shared in public discussion elsewhere. They’re other people’s opinions, not our own analysis or advice.
One view: the ECO4 scheme winding down is the real driver. It funded roughly a third of all installs, and its replacement grant is rolling out slowly and unevenly by postcode.
Funding & policy
On cost: quotes range wildly, from around £4,000 after grants to over £11,000. New radiators, pipework and cylinder space can make the sums not add up against a simple boiler swap.
Installation cost
Another theory: buyers are increasingly choosing cheaper air-to-air systems instead. The government’s figures don’t count these at all, since only air-to-water and ground-source installs are tracked.
Switching to air-to-air
A counterpoint: installers report being fully booked with waiting lists. The dip may just reflect a hot summer pulling attention toward cooling instead of heating.
Demand at the coalface
A capacity concern: the maths on the government’s 450,000-a-year target doesn’t add up. There may not be enough certified installers to hit it, regardless of demand.
Capacity to scale
Another view: the properties best suited to a heat pump, with enough space and a compliant layout, are increasingly already done. That leaves harder, costlier cases behind.
Shrinking easy wins
Just Ask: Heatpump
Just Ask: Heatpump is an independent companion to Visit a Heat Pump and Get a Heat Pump. Built from real installation experience to give honest, practical guidance before you commit.
© 2026 Michael Pope
WE LOVE